From time to time some of the posts of this blog have been about the economy. This one is about the growth rates of some of the leading economies of the world as predicted by this blogger purely from an intuitive/meditative basis rather than an economic analysis of data and trends. The predictions are within a margin of error of plus-minus one per cent
Predicted annual (correction added as Vincent pointed out) GDP Growth Rates in the period 2012-2022
China, 9% +/- 1%
India, 7% +/- 1%
Australia 3% +/- 1%
USA 2% +/- 1%
Japan 0% +/- 1%
Europe 0% +/- 1%
Hopefully this blog will be around for another ten years to check how well this prediction measures out against actual performance.
Predicted annual (correction added as Vincent pointed out) GDP Growth Rates in the period 2012-2022
China, 9% +/- 1%
India, 7% +/- 1%
Australia 3% +/- 1%
USA 2% +/- 1%
Japan 0% +/- 1%
Europe 0% +/- 1%
Hopefully this blog will be around for another ten years to check how well this prediction measures out against actual performance.
4 comments:
Very interesting, Ashok. For clarification, do you mean average annual growth, or do you mean total growth over the ten year-period?
If the former, it would mean China's GDP in 2022 would be around a hundred times greater than in 2012. If the latter, it would mean that it would only be 9% greater than in 2012, with a growth rate of less than 1% a year.
Or more likely, I don't know what I am talking about but still need clarification!
Hello Vincent, I was hoping you would come and participate. These are annual growth rate figures. Yes it would mean that the Chinese GDP would more than double in the next ten years. These estimates for China are not very different I think than other organisations like the world bank predict.
These are just my intutive guesses. I have had many in the past that turned out to be true ( some that did not also) but did not always put them on record, therefore I thought I should put them out today. Interestingly although this prediction puts out a zero growth for Jaan their er capita incomes may rise because of zero inflation and reducing population.
For Europe these are the average figures over Europe and some countries would be on the positive side whereas some on the negative (Italy for one). Austria would be perhaps the highest growth rate after ten years because of their low dependance on fossil fuels.
Thanks for pointing out Vincent, I have added the word annual in the post now for clarity.
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